In the NFL, home field advantage is thought to be one of the bigger edges that a team can have over their opponents. And while home field may indeed be a big edge for teams looking to win games straight up over their opponents, the impact that can be had against the spread is worth investigating as well. Just how important home field advantage can be for NFL betting against the spread is something that varies by team, but its overall impact is something worth keeping an eye on as bettors have a chance to use that information to make informed NFL bets. Figuring out just how good NFL teams are at covering the spread at home can give insight into whether or not teams should be backed as a whole when they are hosts, or if home field shouldn’t mean all that much when placing bets. This kind of analysis is huge for bettors looking to find ways to find value betting on the NFL.
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How do home teams do against the spread?
The performances of home teams in the NFL against the spread vary from year to year, after looking at years of data on the subject. This makes sense, as bookmakers tend to make adjustments from year to year, while the bettors on these games are in situations where they may tend to overrate the performances of teams at home from the previous year, or underrate them depending on how teams did at home the year before.
In 2018, home teams were poor against the spread. Of the 32 teams in the league, only nine finished the season above .500 against the spread. That means that the other 23 teams in the league failed to make money over the course of the 2018 season. In 2017, 13 of the league’s 32 teams were above .500 against the spread at home, with 19 teams finishing at or below the .500 mark. And in 2016, 15 teams finished the season above .500 against the spread at home, with 17 teams still failing to make money.
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What do these numbers mean?
Overall, these numbers tell us that home field advantage may be vital to help teams win their games straight up. But they do not necessarily mean that teams are going to make money when playing the role of hosts. Home teams often have to cover sizeable spreads if they are going to cover, which makes it difficult compared to road teams that often just have to keep a game close if they are going to make their backers money.
More than anything, these numbers mean that you can’t simply back teams because they are at home. And most bettors wouldn’t bet on every team’s home games anyway. Instead, it is important to pick out spots where the home team has an edge against their opponent and against the betting lines. These might not always be easy to find, but doing the work of finding where the home team is at an advantage or disadvantage will always be a better strategy in the NFL than blindly backing the hosts and that same applies to the bookmaker choice. So why don´t you have a look at the following sites?
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